Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$43,015 거래량
$43,015 거래량
2026.04.30
$43,015 거래량
$43,015 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
거래량
$43,015종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$43,015종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-certain consensus against a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) independence declaration by April 30 stems from the complete absence of preparatory steps, such as referendums or official statements from KRG President Nechirvan Barzani or Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, amid ongoing economic diplomacy with Baghdad. Over the past month, KRG efforts have focused on resuming oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, lifting a federal trade embargo imposed since January, and advancing US-led Peshmerga unification slated for September—prioritizing federal revenue-sharing and stability over secession. Iraq's constitution affirms KRG autonomy as a federal region, while Turkey and Iran staunchly oppose independence, echoing the 2017 referendum's military backlash. Only an unforeseen Baghdad collapse or abrupt regional realignment could shift this, though timelines make it implausible.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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