Official Korea Meteorological Administration observations record just 33 mm of precipitation in Seoul through mid-April 2026—about 45% of the historical monthly normal of 73 mm—with notable showers limited to April 6 (6.6 mm), 9 (15.7 mm), and 10 (10.5 mm). This dry start, amid persistent high-pressure systems and mild spring conditions, drives trader consensus toward the <40 mm outcome at 45.5% implied probability, well below climatological averages influenced by pre-monsoon patterns. Current forecast models from KMA indicate low additional rainfall risk over the remaining days, though inherent uncertainty in convective showers could shift totals; watch daily updates for evolving guidance on precipitation thresholds.