Trader consensus favors under 40mm total precipitation in Seoul for April 2026 at 53% implied probability, driven by scant rainfall accumulation through mid-month per Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations—well below the historical April average of about 65mm—and short-term forecasts showing only 30% chances of scattered showers amid dominant high pressure systems. Atmospheric conditions feature reduced moisture inflow from the East Sea and weak frontal activity typical of early spring, limiting convective development. Ensemble model guidance from KMA indicates low intensification potential for any systems, though uncertainty persists with 14 days remaining; daily updates will clarify if atypical rain bands emerge to push totals toward higher brackets like 65-70mm (15%).