Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability against Sam Altman receiving OpenAI equity by June 30, driven by confirmed reports of his zero direct ownership stake, as revealed in a recent leaked cap table and reiterated in Wall Street Journal coverage this week. Despite OpenAI's late-2025 restructuring into a for-profit entity—granting Microsoft a 27% stake—Altman explicitly received no equity, a structure unchanged since his 2023 reinstatement amid governance tensions over undisclosed personal investments. Recent scrutiny of his pushes for OpenAI funding into ventures like Helion Energy, where he holds significant personal stakes, underscores persistent conflicts without equity resolution. With an aggressive 2026 IPO timeline flagged by CFO Sarah Friar as risky, no official announcements signal imminent changes, prioritizing board stability over CEO incentives.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.06.30
신규
신규
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability against Sam Altman receiving OpenAI equity by June 30, driven by confirmed reports of his zero direct ownership stake, as revealed in a recent leaked cap table and reiterated in Wall Street Journal coverage this week. Despite OpenAI's late-2025 restructuring into a for-profit entity—granting Microsoft a 27% stake—Altman explicitly received no equity, a structure unchanged since his 2023 reinstatement amid governance tensions over undisclosed personal investments. Recent scrutiny of his pushes for OpenAI funding into ventures like Helion Energy, where he holds significant personal stakes, underscores persistent conflicts without equity resolution. With an aggressive 2026 IPO timeline flagged by CFO Sarah Friar as risky, no official announcements signal imminent changes, prioritizing board stability over CEO incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ET
거래량
$4,887종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability against Sam Altman receiving OpenAI equity by June 30, driven by confirmed reports of his zero direct ownership stake, as revealed in a recent leaked cap table and reiterated in Wall Street Journal coverage this week. Despite OpenAI's late-2025 restructuring into a for-profit entity—granting Microsoft a 27% stake—Altman explicitly received no equity, a structure unchanged since his 2023 reinstatement amid governance tensions over undisclosed personal investments. Recent scrutiny of his pushes for OpenAI funding into ventures like Helion Energy, where he holds significant personal stakes, underscores persistent conflicts without equity resolution. With an aggressive 2026 IPO timeline flagged by CFO Sarah Friar as risky, no official announcements signal imminent changes, prioritizing board stability over CEO incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.
Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$4,887종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 73.5% implied probability against Sam Altman receiving OpenAI equity by June 30, driven by confirmed reports of his zero direct ownership stake, as revealed in a recent leaked cap table and reiterated in Wall Street Journal coverage this week. Despite OpenAI's late-2025 restructuring into a for-profit entity—granting Microsoft a 27% stake—Altman explicitly received no equity, a structure unchanged since his 2023 reinstatement amid governance tensions over undisclosed personal investments. Recent scrutiny of his pushes for OpenAI funding into ventures like Helion Energy, where he holds significant personal stakes, underscores persistent conflicts without equity resolution. With an aggressive 2026 IPO timeline flagged by CFO Sarah Friar as risky, no official announcements signal imminent changes, prioritizing board stability over CEO incentives.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문