Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 Wol.
$253,443 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
No
2nd hottest
Yes
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
2nd hottest 100.0%
1st hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$253,443 Wol.
$253,443 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$30,795 Wol.
No
2nd hottest
$14,779 Wol.
Yes
3rd hottest
$78,913 Wol.
No
4th or lower
$128,955 Wol.
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$253,443Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$253,443Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent Copernicus data confirming May 2026 as the second-warmest May globally, behind only 2024, has anchored near-certain market odds on that outcome. Persistent high ocean heat content, combined with early signs of a developing El Niño, sustained elevated land and sea-surface temperatures consistent with long-term anthropogenic warming trends. Official analyses place the month just below the 2024 benchmark while well above prior baselines, with minimal model disagreement on the final ranking. New monthly reports from agencies like NOAA could refine margins, yet only a substantial downward revision in verified observations would realistically shift consensus away from second place.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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