Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrüne 53%
AfD 14%
Linke 14%
CDU 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
53%
AfD
14%
Linke
14%
CDU
17%
SPD
8%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
11%
Grüne 53%
AfD 14%
Linke 14%
CDU 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$1,373 Wol.
53%
AfD
$36 Wol.
14%
Linke
$110 Wol.
14%
CDU
$36 Wol.
17%
SPD
$36 Wol.
8%
FDP
$99 Wol.
5%
BSW
$51 Wol.
4%
FW
$84 Wol.
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,823Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Wolumen
$1,823Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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