Strong consensus for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting stems from elevated upside risks to inflation driven by higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. Recent staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, with core measures also revised higher due to second-round effects from the energy shock, prompting policymakers to prioritize containing persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for tightening, and economist surveys now show over 90% expecting the June move to 2.25%. A swift resolution to the conflict that sharply lowers energy costs could still alter the path, though current data and communications point to limited scope for such a shift before the meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 98.0%
No change 2.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$693,343 Wol.
$693,343 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
2%
25 bps Increase
98%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps Increase 98.0%
No change 2.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$693,343 Wol.
$693,343 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,106 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$116,083 Wol.
<1%
No change
$157,481 Wol.
2%
25 bps Increase
$162,841 Wol.
98%
50+ bps increase
$152,831 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Strong consensus for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting stems from elevated upside risks to inflation driven by higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. Recent staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, with core measures also revised higher due to second-round effects from the energy shock, prompting policymakers to prioritize containing persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for tightening, and economist surveys now show over 90% expecting the June move to 2.25%. A swift resolution to the conflict that sharply lowers energy costs could still alter the path, though current data and communications point to limited scope for such a shift before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$693,343Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Strong consensus for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting stems from elevated upside risks to inflation driven by higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. Recent staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, with core measures also revised higher due to second-round effects from the energy shock, prompting policymakers to prioritize containing persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for tightening, and economist surveys now show over 90% expecting the June move to 2.25%. A swift resolution to the conflict that sharply lowers energy costs could still alter the path, though current data and communications point to limited scope for such a shift before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Wolumen
$693,343Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong consensus for a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate increase at the June 11, 2026 meeting stems from elevated upside risks to inflation driven by higher energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. Recent staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.6% in 2026, with core measures also revised higher due to second-round effects from the energy shock, prompting policymakers to prioritize containing persistent price pressures over growth concerns. The April 30 hold at 2.00% left the door open for tightening, and economist surveys now show over 90% expecting the June move to 2.25%. A swift resolution to the conflict that sharply lowers energy costs could still alter the path, though current data and communications point to limited scope for such a shift before the meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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