Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area headline inflation higher and elevating short-term inflation expectations, which has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with a 96.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting, aligns with economist surveys anticipating a move to 2.25% to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This positioning reflects markets pricing in sequential quarter-point adjustments through September. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 96.5%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 Wol.
$667,760 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
3%
25 bps Increase
97%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps Increase 96.5%
No change 3.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$667,760 Wol.
$667,760 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$104,106 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$116,081 Wol.
<1%
No change
$152,274 Wol.
3%
25 bps Increase
$157,831 Wol.
97%
50+ bps increase
$137,468 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area headline inflation higher and elevating short-term inflation expectations, which has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with a 96.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting, aligns with economist surveys anticipating a move to 2.25% to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This positioning reflects markets pricing in sequential quarter-point adjustments through September. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$667,760Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area headline inflation higher and elevating short-term inflation expectations, which has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with a 96.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting, aligns with economist surveys anticipating a move to 2.25% to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This positioning reflects markets pricing in sequential quarter-point adjustments through September. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Wolumen
$667,760Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven energy price surges, pushing euro-area headline inflation higher and elevating short-term inflation expectations, which has prompted the ECB to signal a data-dependent tightening path after holding its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April. Trader consensus on Polymarket, with a 96.5% implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the June 10-11 meeting, aligns with economist surveys anticipating a move to 2.25% to contain second-round effects amid resilient labor conditions and upwardly revised staff projections. This positioning reflects markets pricing in sequential quarter-point adjustments through September. A durable decline in energy costs or rapid de-escalation could still shift the outlook toward a hold, though incoming data releases will determine whether the implied probability remains anchored near current levels.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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