**Ekrem İmamoğlu remains in pretrial detention at Marmara Prison (Silivri) as of early September 2026, more than 18 months after his March 2025 arrest on corruption and related charges.** The primary driver of the 94.5% “No” probability is the ongoing İBB corruption trial, which began March 9, 2026, and involves over 400 defendants facing allegations of forming a criminal organization, bid-rigging, bribery, and other offenses; prosecutors have sought cumulative sentences exceeding 2,000 years for İmamoğlu alone. Monthly detention reviews have continued his custody even as dozens of co-defendants received conditional release, reflecting judicial findings that flight risk or evidence-tampering concerns persist for the lead defendant. Additional proceedings reinforce the outlook: a separate “political espionage” case, convictions for insulting/threatening a prosecutor (including a 2025 sentence of roughly 20 months), and diploma-related challenges that have already produced a political activity ban. The trial schedule—now in its 70+ hearings with defense testimony and cross-examinations still underway—points to continuation well into 2027 or later, consistent with the court’s initial multi-year timeline estimate. İmamoğlu’s recent affiliation with the newly formed New Party from prison has not altered custody status, and no scheduled events or appeals within the remainder of 2026 appear positioned to trigger release under Turkish criminal procedure. Traders therefore price near-certainty that he will not exit custody before year-end.