Erdoğan's current presidential term extends through 2028 following his 2023 reelection, with no national elections or constitutional provisions scheduled that would force an early exit before the end of 2026. Turkish political institutions, including the ruling AK Party structure and parliamentary dynamics, show no active moves toward snap elections or leadership transition that would alter this timeline. Traders price the outcome at 95.5% against removal due to this established electoral calendar and the absence of recent catalysts such as major scandals, coalition shifts, or institutional challenges capable of accelerating change. Even with such high implied probability, low-probability scenarios like sudden health developments, unforeseen diplomatic crises, or internal party realignments could still shift positioning before year-end 2026.