**Federal investigations into Eric Swalwell remain in the evidence-gathering phase following mid-August 2026 search warrants, making formal charges by September 30 highly unlikely under standard prosecutorial timelines.** FBI agents seized Swalwell’s phone and laptop at San Francisco International Airport on August 15–16 and searched his Washington, D.C., home the next day as part of a civil-rights probe under 18 U.S.C. § 242 tied to sexual-misconduct allegations from multiple women. Parallel state inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles investigators are also active but focused on collecting statements and materials rather than immediate charging decisions. Swalwell resigned from Congress and exited the California gubernatorial race in April 2026 after the allegations surfaced; he has denied all claims. Court records and reporting through early September confirm no indictments or charging announcements have occurred, and experts note that reviewing digital evidence, interviewing witnesses, and meeting charging standards in cases involving a former member of Congress typically require months rather than days. Traders’ 94% consensus on “No” reflects these procedural realities and the absence of any public signals of imminent action in the final week before the resolution deadline.