**Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he intends to serve at least another full term has been the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations against a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy this calendar year.** The 76-year-old justice’s remarks directly addressed and cooled speculation that arose after an erroneous NPR retirement report in June. No comparable retirement signals have emerged from the other eight justices, including 78-year-old Clarence Thomas. Official disclosures and credible reporting show no health-related announcements or procedural indications of an impending departure before December 31. The court remains at its full nine-member complement, and the constitutional process for filling any seat—presidential nomination followed by Senate confirmation—has not been triggered. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, the absence of voluntary exits by the oldest justices has kept implied probabilities of a vacancy low, consistent with the roughly 15-20% historical annual base rate for openings absent clear catalysts.