The 97.3% market-implied probability against abolishing the Federal Reserve before 2027 reflects the absence of legislative momentum, as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act remains stalled in committee with no viable path forward under current congressional priorities. The institution’s statutory foundation in the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, combined with its mandate to set the federal funds rate, manage inflation via CPI and PCE data, and respond to labor market conditions, underpins broad institutional consensus. Recent FOMC communications and proposed 2026 stress tests further signal operational continuity rather than structural overhaul. Tail-risk scenarios, such as an acute financial crisis or unprecedented political realignment overriding bicameral requirements, remain low-probability events given the multi-step repeal process.