US midterm elections follow a fixed statutory schedule under federal law for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years, with the 2026 contests set for November 3 absent any congressional action to change dates. Trader consensus at 97.4% for on-schedule voting reflects the absence of pending legislation, executive proposals, or institutional momentum to delay or cancel them, consistent with historical precedent through wars, recessions, and emergencies. Key factors sustaining this view include entrenched election administration at state and local levels plus the lack of qualifying crises that would trigger emergency postponements. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major national security event prompting Congress to act or successful legal challenges altering timing in key jurisdictions.