Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, Futura, and MDA show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, but statistical ties or slight Flávio edges in simulated October 25 runoffs, mirroring Polymarket's razor-thin trader consensus. Lula's approval has dipped below 45% amid economic pressures and high disapproval, while Flávio consolidates right-wing votes via his father's endorsement and avoids fragmenting the opposition field. A Supreme Court-ordered federal police probe into Flávio for alleged slander against Lula, launched April 15, adds volatility just as some surveys showed him pulling ahead. Upcoming debates, economic data, and coalition shifts could create separation before the October 4 first round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlávio Bolsonaro 40.6%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.5%
$53,617,273 Wol.
$53,617,273 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
5%
Romeu Zema
2%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 40.6%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.5%
$53,617,273 Wol.
$53,617,273 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
5%
Romeu Zema
2%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, Futura, and MDA show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of 2–9 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, but statistical ties or slight Flávio edges in simulated October 25 runoffs, mirroring Polymarket's razor-thin trader consensus. Lula's approval has dipped below 45% amid economic pressures and high disapproval, while Flávio consolidates right-wing votes via his father's endorsement and avoids fragmenting the opposition field. A Supreme Court-ordered federal police probe into Flávio for alleged slander against Lula, launched April 15, adds volatility just as some surveys showed him pulling ahead. Upcoming debates, economic data, and coalition shifts could create separation before the October 4 first round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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