Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula holding narrow first-round leads over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 39-44% to 36-42%), with both far ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning drives trader consensus that Lula is likeliest to finish first while Flávio secures second place in the October 4 vote, advancing both to a potential runoff. Flávio has narrowed gaps in multiple late polls amid stable voter blocs and limited movement from minor candidates. Jair Bolsonaro’s prior ineligibility and family campaign dynamics have consolidated right-leaning support behind Flávio without altering the top-two structure. The market reflects this evidence-based assessment of first-round ordering rather than outright victory odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlávio Bolsonaro 70%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 30.5%
Renan Santos <1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,672,026 Wol.
$7,672,026 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
70%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
31%
Renan Santos
<1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 70%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 30.5%
Renan Santos <1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,672,026 Wol.
$7,672,026 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
70%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
31%
Renan Santos
<1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent September polling aggregates show President Lula holding narrow first-round leads over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (typically 39-44% to 36-42%), with both far ahead of Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. This positioning drives trader consensus that Lula is likeliest to finish first while Flávio secures second place in the October 4 vote, advancing both to a potential runoff. Flávio has narrowed gaps in multiple late polls amid stable voter blocs and limited movement from minor candidates. Jair Bolsonaro’s prior ineligibility and family campaign dynamics have consolidated right-leaning support behind Flávio without altering the top-two structure. The market reflects this evidence-based assessment of first-round ordering rather than outright victory odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
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