Recent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA forecasts have anchored trader expectations around the 5.00-5.49% band. The government lifted its projection to 5.1% in July from 4.5% in May, while the Central Bank’s Focus survey rose to 5.30%, both exceeding the 3.0% target midpoint plus tolerance band. July’s actual inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year, yet persistent services and administered-price pressures, combined with Selic policy at elevated levels, have kept medium-term expectations elevated. These data points, rather than longer-term disinflation projections near 3.7% for 2027, explain the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes above the upper tolerance limit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil Annual Inflation 2026
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49% 46.6%
4.50-4.99% 25.1%
5.50-5.99% 16.8%
4.00-4.49% 7.2%
$95,440 Wol.
$95,440 Wol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
7%
4.50-4.99%
25%
5.00-5.49%
47%
5.50-5.99%
17%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
3%
5.00-5.49% 46.6%
4.50-4.99% 25.1%
5.50-5.99% 16.8%
4.00-4.49% 7.2%
$95,440 Wol.
$95,440 Wol.
Jan 12, 2027
<3.00%
$5,727 Wol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,787 Wol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,189 Wol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$14,048 Wol.
7%
4.50-4.99%
$15,186 Wol.
25%
5.00-5.49%
$14,104 Wol.
47%
5.50-5.99%
$9,432 Wol.
17%
6.00-6.49%
$6,485 Wol.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,683 Wol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,799 Wol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA forecasts have anchored trader expectations around the 5.00-5.49% band. The government lifted its projection to 5.1% in July from 4.5% in May, while the Central Bank’s Focus survey rose to 5.30%, both exceeding the 3.0% target midpoint plus tolerance band. July’s actual inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year, yet persistent services and administered-price pressures, combined with Selic policy at elevated levels, have kept medium-term expectations elevated. These data points, rather than longer-term disinflation projections near 3.7% for 2027, explain the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes above the upper tolerance limit.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Rynek otwarty: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Wolumen
$95,440Data zakończenia
Jan 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA forecasts have anchored trader expectations around the 5.00-5.49% band. The government lifted its projection to 5.1% in July from 4.5% in May, while the Central Bank’s Focus survey rose to 5.30%, both exceeding the 3.0% target midpoint plus tolerance band. July’s actual inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year, yet persistent services and administered-price pressures, combined with Selic policy at elevated levels, have kept medium-term expectations elevated. These data points, rather than longer-term disinflation projections near 3.7% for 2027, explain the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes above the upper tolerance limit.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Wolumen
$95,440Data zakończenia
Jan 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA forecasts have anchored trader expectations around the 5.00-5.49% band. The government lifted its projection to 5.1% in July from 4.5% in May, while the Central Bank’s Focus survey rose to 5.30%, both exceeding the 3.0% target midpoint plus tolerance band. July’s actual inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year, yet persistent services and administered-price pressures, combined with Selic policy at elevated levels, have kept medium-term expectations elevated. These data points, rather than longer-term disinflation projections near 3.7% for 2027, explain the market-implied distribution favoring outcomes above the upper tolerance limit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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