The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoACM Neto 47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,466 Wol.
$35,466 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 46%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Kleber Rosa <1%
$35,466 Wol.
$35,466 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
$12,006 Wol.
47%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$10,153 Wol.
46%
José Carlos Aleluia
$3,671 Wol.
<1%
Kleber Rosa
$3,451 Wol.
<1%
João Roma
$2,077 Wol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$2,173 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,935 Wol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,466Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$35,466Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round, with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing technical ties or narrow leads fluctuating between the two in first-round scenarios. Rodrigues maintains approval near 56 percent linked to state spending on education and infrastructure, while Neto consolidates support among independents and right-leaning voters following his party's 2025 rupture with the Lula administration and alignment with the broader opposition bloc. Polling divergence across firms, combined with national polarization and the rematch dynamics from 2022, has kept trader probabilities balanced near even, though shifts in alliances or late-cycle surveys could widen the gap.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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