**Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy spike tied to geopolitical tensions, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** The Fed has held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.5%-3.75% since late 2025, and recent communications plus futures pricing reflect a cautious pause to assess how higher oil and gasoline costs transmit through the economy before considering adjustments. Core measures also edged higher, reinforcing the case for steady policy. The June CPI release on July 14 will provide the last major data point ahead of the meeting. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or clear labor-market softening could reopen modest odds of a 25-basis-point cut, while further upside surprises might lift the small probability of a hike, though both remain low-probability paths given current readings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzja Fed w lipcu?
Decyzja Fed w lipcu?
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 3.9%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.5%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$9,794,946 Wol.
$9,794,946 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
3%
Brak zmiany
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
<1%
Brak zmiany 93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb 3.9%
Obniżka o 25 pb 2.5%
Obniżka o 50+ pb <1%
$9,794,946 Wol.
$9,794,946 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Obniżka o 50+ pb
$1,444,229 Wol.
1%
Obniżka o 25 pb
$1,068,446 Wol.
3%
Brak zmiany
$1,623,740 Wol.
93%
Podwyżka o 25 pb
$4,100,583 Wol.
4%
Podwyżka o 50+ pb
$1,558,241 Wol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy spike tied to geopolitical tensions, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.**
The Fed has held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.5%-3.75% since late 2025, and recent communications plus futures pricing reflect a cautious pause to assess how higher oil and gasoline costs transmit through the economy before considering adjustments. Core measures also edged higher, reinforcing the case for steady policy.
The June CPI release on July 14 will provide the last major data point ahead of the meeting. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or clear labor-market softening could reopen modest odds of a 25-basis-point cut, while further upside surprises might lift the small probability of a hike, though both remain low-probability paths given current readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,794,946Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy spike tied to geopolitical tensions, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.**
The Fed has held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.5%-3.75% since late 2025, and recent communications plus futures pricing reflect a cautious pause to assess how higher oil and gasoline costs transmit through the economy before considering adjustments. Core measures also edged higher, reinforcing the case for steady policy.
The June CPI release on July 14 will provide the last major data point ahead of the meeting. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or clear labor-market softening could reopen modest odds of a 25-basis-point cut, while further upside surprises might lift the small probability of a hike, though both remain low-probability paths given current readings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$9,794,946Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent U.S. inflation data, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.5% month-over-month to 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—driven largely by a sharp energy spike tied to geopolitical tensions, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.** The Fed has held the federal funds rate target steady at 3.5%-3.75% since late 2025, and recent communications plus futures pricing reflect a cautious pause to assess how higher oil and gasoline costs transmit through the economy before considering adjustments. Core measures also edged higher, reinforcing the case for steady policy. The June CPI release on July 14 will provide the last major data point ahead of the meeting. A sharp downside surprise in inflation or clear labor-market softening could reopen modest odds of a 25-basis-point cut, while further upside surprises might lift the small probability of a hike, though both remain low-probability paths given current readings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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