xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series drives current trader focus, with Grok 4.3 launching on the API in early May 2026 featuring a 1-million-token context window, top agentic tool-calling benchmarks, and improved instruction following. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model has finished training and, after supplemental data, SFT, and RL stages, should reach release in roughly three to four weeks. This aligns with earlier May reports outlining Grok 4.4 as a 1-trillion-parameter step up from the public 0.5T version 4.3, trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus and GPT variants, alongside xAI's emphasis on real-time search and native tools, shapes expectations for the next update's timing and capability gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 4.4 released by...?
Grok 4.4 released by...?
NOWE
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
10%
June 15
31%
June 30
76%
$62 Wol.
May 31
$20 Wol.
10%
June 15
$2 Wol.
31%
June 30
$40 Wol.
76%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series drives current trader focus, with Grok 4.3 launching on the API in early May 2026 featuring a 1-million-token context window, top agentic tool-calling benchmarks, and improved instruction following. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model has finished training and, after supplemental data, SFT, and RL stages, should reach release in roughly three to four weeks. This aligns with earlier May reports outlining Grok 4.4 as a 1-trillion-parameter step up from the public 0.5T version 4.3, trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus and GPT variants, alongside xAI's emphasis on real-time search and native tools, shapes expectations for the next update's timing and capability gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Wolumen
$62Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series drives current trader focus, with Grok 4.3 launching on the API in early May 2026 featuring a 1-million-token context window, top agentic tool-calling benchmarks, and improved instruction following. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model has finished training and, after supplemental data, SFT, and RL stages, should reach release in roughly three to four weeks. This aligns with earlier May reports outlining Grok 4.4 as a 1-trillion-parameter step up from the public 0.5T version 4.3, trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus and GPT variants, alongside xAI's emphasis on real-time search and native tools, shapes expectations for the next update's timing and capability gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$62Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's rapid iteration on the Grok 4 series drives current trader focus, with Grok 4.3 launching on the API in early May 2026 featuring a 1-million-token context window, top agentic tool-calling benchmarks, and improved instruction following. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model has finished training and, after supplemental data, SFT, and RL stages, should reach release in roughly three to four weeks. This aligns with earlier May reports outlining Grok 4.4 as a 1-trillion-parameter step up from the public 0.5T version 4.3, trained on expanded Colossus infrastructure. Competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus and GPT variants, alongside xAI's emphasis on real-time search and native tools, shapes expectations for the next update's timing and capability gains.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania