Anthropic’s rapid cadence on mid-tier models is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the next Claude Sonnet release. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, delivering near-Opus 4.8 agentic performance in coding, tool use, and autonomous planning at roughly one-third the cost, and quickly became the default for free and Pro users. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February and reflects Anthropic’s strategy of shipping iterative improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks to close the gap with larger models while undercutting OpenAI and Google pricing. Traders are watching for the typical four-to-five-month cycle, with recent shifts in prediction markets reflecting credible reports of ongoing development and competitive pressure ahead of potential developer conferences or earnings updates. A release by late October would align with historical patterns, though exact timing remains sensitive to internal testing and safety evaluations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNext Claude Sonnet released by...?
Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
$18,382 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
22%
October 31
66%
December 31
97%
$18,382 Wol.
September 30
$975 Wol.
22%
October 31
$9,912 Wol.
66%
December 31
$3,757 Wol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid cadence on mid-tier models is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the next Claude Sonnet release. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, delivering near-Opus 4.8 agentic performance in coding, tool use, and autonomous planning at roughly one-third the cost, and quickly became the default for free and Pro users. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February and reflects Anthropic’s strategy of shipping iterative improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks to close the gap with larger models while undercutting OpenAI and Google pricing. Traders are watching for the typical four-to-five-month cycle, with recent shifts in prediction markets reflecting credible reports of ongoing development and competitive pressure ahead of potential developer conferences or earnings updates. A release by late October would align with historical patterns, though exact timing remains sensitive to internal testing and safety evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$18,382Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid cadence on mid-tier models is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the next Claude Sonnet release. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, delivering near-Opus 4.8 agentic performance in coding, tool use, and autonomous planning at roughly one-third the cost, and quickly became the default for free and Pro users. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February and reflects Anthropic’s strategy of shipping iterative improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks to close the gap with larger models while undercutting OpenAI and Google pricing. Traders are watching for the typical four-to-five-month cycle, with recent shifts in prediction markets reflecting credible reports of ongoing development and competitive pressure ahead of potential developer conferences or earnings updates. A release by late October would align with historical patterns, though exact timing remains sensitive to internal testing and safety evaluations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$18,382Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Sep 3, 2026, 9:06 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid cadence on mid-tier models is the main driver behind current market-implied odds for the next Claude Sonnet release. Sonnet 5 launched June 30, 2026, delivering near-Opus 4.8 agentic performance in coding, tool use, and autonomous planning at roughly one-third the cost, and quickly became the default for free and Pro users. This followed Sonnet 4.6 in February and reflects Anthropic’s strategy of shipping iterative improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks to close the gap with larger models while undercutting OpenAI and Google pricing. Traders are watching for the typical four-to-five-month cycle, with recent shifts in prediction markets reflecting credible reports of ongoing development and competitive pressure ahead of potential developer conferences or earnings updates. A release by late October would align with historical patterns, though exact timing remains sensitive to internal testing and safety evaluations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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