Recent releases of frontier large language models have driven strong trader consensus around high Math Arena scores by year-end, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra topping expected performance at 90.7% on MathArena benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants continues to accelerate math reasoning gains on olympiad-style and research-level problems. Traders note that saturation on easier math benchmarks has shifted focus to harder ArXiv and proof-based tracks, where incremental capability jumps remain possible before December 31. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates, developer conferences, and potential new benchmark sets that could push Arena Elo ratings higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
$129,534 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
1575
40%
1600
9%
$129,534 Wol.
1575
$46,161 Wol.
40%
1600
$14,767 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of frontier large language models have driven strong trader consensus around high Math Arena scores by year-end, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra topping expected performance at 90.7% on MathArena benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants continues to accelerate math reasoning gains on olympiad-style and research-level problems. Traders note that saturation on easier math benchmarks has shifted focus to harder ArXiv and proof-based tracks, where incremental capability jumps remain possible before December 31. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates, developer conferences, and potential new benchmark sets that could push Arena Elo ratings higher.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$129,534Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of frontier large language models have driven strong trader consensus around high Math Arena scores by year-end, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra topping expected performance at 90.7% on MathArena benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants continues to accelerate math reasoning gains on olympiad-style and research-level problems. Traders note that saturation on easier math benchmarks has shifted focus to harder ArXiv and proof-based tracks, where incremental capability jumps remain possible before December 31. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates, developer conferences, and potential new benchmark sets that could push Arena Elo ratings higher.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$129,534Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent releases of frontier large language models have driven strong trader consensus around high Math Arena scores by year-end, with OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra topping expected performance at 90.7% on MathArena benchmarks shortly after its early September launch. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 series, Moonshot’s Kimi models, and Alibaba’s Qwen variants continues to accelerate math reasoning gains on olympiad-style and research-level problems. Traders note that saturation on easier math benchmarks has shifted focus to harder ArXiv and proof-based tracks, where incremental capability jumps remain possible before December 31. Key catalysts ahead include further model updates, developer conferences, and potential new benchmark sets that could push Arena Elo ratings higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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