Recent frontier releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra in early September and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, have lifted top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1531 range, with Anthropic models holding the lead amid incremental gains of 20–60 points per major update. Tight clustering among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash series, Meta’s Muse Spark, and open-weight contenders like Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 keeps the market sensitive to any new capability jump before year-end. Traders focus on confirmed model launches, leaderboard methodology changes, and typical release timelines, noting that sustained progress from multiple labs could push scores higher while regulatory scrutiny or compute constraints introduce downside risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
$183,566 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1520
95%
↑ 1530
40%
↑ 1540
20%
↑ 1550
13%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$183,566 Wol.
↑ 1520
$32,642 Wol.
95%
↑ 1530
$12,943 Wol.
40%
↑ 1540
$5,135 Wol.
20%
↑ 1550
$52,585 Wol.
13%
↑ 1600
$25,370 Wol.
5%
↑ 1650
$9,196 Wol.
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent frontier releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra in early September and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, have lifted top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1531 range, with Anthropic models holding the lead amid incremental gains of 20–60 points per major update. Tight clustering among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash series, Meta’s Muse Spark, and open-weight contenders like Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 keeps the market sensitive to any new capability jump before year-end. Traders focus on confirmed model launches, leaderboard methodology changes, and typical release timelines, noting that sustained progress from multiple labs could push scores higher while regulatory scrutiny or compute constraints introduce downside risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$183,566Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent frontier releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra in early September and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, have lifted top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1531 range, with Anthropic models holding the lead amid incremental gains of 20–60 points per major update. Tight clustering among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash series, Meta’s Muse Spark, and open-weight contenders like Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 keeps the market sensitive to any new capability jump before year-end. Traders focus on confirmed model launches, leaderboard methodology changes, and typical release timelines, noting that sustained progress from multiple labs could push scores higher while regulatory scrutiny or compute constraints introduce downside risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$183,566Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent frontier releases, including OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra in early September and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants, have lifted top Chatbot Arena Elo scores into the 1500–1531 range, with Anthropic models holding the lead amid incremental gains of 20–60 points per major update. Tight clustering among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash series, Meta’s Muse Spark, and open-weight contenders like Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 keeps the market sensitive to any new capability jump before year-end. Traders focus on confirmed model launches, leaderboard methodology changes, and typical release timelines, noting that sustained progress from multiple labs could push scores higher while regulatory scrutiny or compute constraints introduce downside risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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