Anthropic currently leads major benchmarks with its Claude Mythos and Fable 5 models, released in mid-2026, outpacing rivals on coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks like SWE-Bench Pro and Humanity's Last Exam. OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini 3.x updates remain competitive, while xAI's Grok 4 series and Meta's Muse Spark push the frontier tighter among five labs. Frequent releases, converging performance gaps, and shifting leaderboards reflect intense iteration; traders watch for Q3–Q4 announcements and benchmark refreshes that could elevate or dethrone the current top performer before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$86,079 Wol.
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
$86,079 Wol.
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads major benchmarks with its Claude Mythos and Fable 5 models, released in mid-2026, outpacing rivals on coding, reasoning, and real-world tasks like SWE-Bench Pro and Humanity's Last Exam. OpenAI's July GPT-5.6 variants and Google's Gemini 3.x updates remain competitive, while xAI's Grok 4 series and Meta's Muse Spark push the frontier tighter among five labs. Frequent releases, converging performance gaps, and shifting leaderboards reflect intense iteration; traders watch for Q3–Q4 announcements and benchmark refreshes that could elevate or dethrone the current top performer before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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