Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 have driven current trader sentiment by claiming top spots on LMSYS Arena and composite leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early August 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain close behind on quality metrics while Google’s Gemini 3 series competes strongly in long-context and multimodal benchmarks, reflecting a tight race among frontier labs. Key dynamics include specialized strengths—Anthropic in developer workflows, OpenAI in broad consumer capabilities—and ongoing model iterations that can shift Elo ratings quickly. Traders should monitor major benchmark updates, developer conference announcements, and any new frontier releases through year-end, as incremental advances or capability demonstrations often alter market-implied odds before December 31 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$86,086 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
30%
24%
Moonshot
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
ByteDance
10%
Z.ai
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
7%
Mistral
3%
$86,086 Wol.
OpenAI
$18,441 Wol.
30%
$16,612 Wol.
24%
Moonshot
$3,823 Wol.
13%
xAI
$8,291 Wol.
13%
Meta
$12,144 Wol.
12%
ByteDance
$2,392 Wol.
10%
Z.ai
$2,479 Wol.
8%
DeepSeek
$2,941 Wol.
8%
Amazon
$2,727 Wol.
8%
Microsoft
$3,469 Wol.
8%
Alibaba
$2,120 Wol.
7%
Baidu
$1,891 Wol.
7%
Meituan
$1,986 Wol.
7%
Mistral
$6,771 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 have driven current trader sentiment by claiming top spots on LMSYS Arena and composite leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early August 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain close behind on quality metrics while Google’s Gemini 3 series competes strongly in long-context and multimodal benchmarks, reflecting a tight race among frontier labs. Key dynamics include specialized strengths—Anthropic in developer workflows, OpenAI in broad consumer capabilities—and ongoing model iterations that can shift Elo ratings quickly. Traders should monitor major benchmark updates, developer conference announcements, and any new frontier releases through year-end, as incremental advances or capability demonstrations often alter market-implied odds before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$86,086Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 have driven current trader sentiment by claiming top spots on LMSYS Arena and composite leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early August 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain close behind on quality metrics while Google’s Gemini 3 series competes strongly in long-context and multimodal benchmarks, reflecting a tight race among frontier labs. Key dynamics include specialized strengths—Anthropic in developer workflows, OpenAI in broad consumer capabilities—and ongoing model iterations that can shift Elo ratings quickly. Traders should monitor major benchmark updates, developer conference announcements, and any new frontier releases through year-end, as incremental advances or capability demonstrations often alter market-implied odds before December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Wolumen
$86,086Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8/5 have driven current trader sentiment by claiming top spots on LMSYS Arena and composite leaderboards for coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as of early August 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants remain close behind on quality metrics while Google’s Gemini 3 series competes strongly in long-context and multimodal benchmarks, reflecting a tight race among frontier labs. Key dynamics include specialized strengths—Anthropic in developer workflows, OpenAI in broad consumer capabilities—and ongoing model iterations that can shift Elo ratings quickly. Traders should monitor major benchmark updates, developer conference announcements, and any new frontier releases through year-end, as incremental advances or capability demonstrations often alter market-implied odds before December 31 resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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