Intense competition among multiple AI labs has created closely matched trader sentiment for the third-best position by end of November, with Meta at 37.5% implied probability leading a crowded field that includes Google, Z.ai, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have narrowed gaps in large language model capabilities, while factors like developer ecosystem growth, training compute access, and safety evaluations keep several contenders viable. OpenAI and Anthropic trade at low odds, reflecting their likely top-two status. Key swing elements include upcoming capability demonstrations, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and any shifts in user adoption or partnerships that could elevate one lab's standing before the resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoThird-best AI Lab end of November?
Third-best AI Lab end of November?
Meta 38%
Google 24%
Alibaba 15%
ByteDance 9.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
38%
24%
Alibaba
15%
ByteDance
13%
Z.ai
7%
Moonshot
13%
OpenAI
6%
Amazon
4%
Anthropic
3%
Microsoft
3%
Baidu
3%
Xiaomi
3%
Nvidia
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 38%
Google 24%
Alibaba 15%
ByteDance 9.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
$1,536 Wol.
38%
$699 Wol.
24%
Alibaba
$212 Wol.
15%
ByteDance
$75 Wol.
13%
Z.ai
$67 Wol.
7%
Moonshot
$81 Wol.
13%
OpenAI
$67 Wol.
6%
Amazon
$67 Wol.
4%
Anthropic
$127 Wol.
3%
Microsoft
$87 Wol.
3%
Baidu
$128 Wol.
3%
Xiaomi
$88 Wol.
3%
Nvidia
$67 Wol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$67 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$61 Wol.
1%
Thinky
$71 Wol.
1%
MiniMax
$71 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$61 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$61 Wol.
1%
Tencent
$71 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$61 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among multiple AI labs has created closely matched trader sentiment for the third-best position by end of November, with Meta at 37.5% implied probability leading a crowded field that includes Google, Z.ai, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have narrowed gaps in large language model capabilities, while factors like developer ecosystem growth, training compute access, and safety evaluations keep several contenders viable. OpenAI and Anthropic trade at low odds, reflecting their likely top-two status. Key swing elements include upcoming capability demonstrations, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and any shifts in user adoption or partnerships that could elevate one lab's standing before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,820Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among multiple AI labs has created closely matched trader sentiment for the third-best position by end of November, with Meta at 37.5% implied probability leading a crowded field that includes Google, Z.ai, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have narrowed gaps in large language model capabilities, while factors like developer ecosystem growth, training compute access, and safety evaluations keep several contenders viable. OpenAI and Anthropic trade at low odds, reflecting their likely top-two status. Key swing elements include upcoming capability demonstrations, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and any shifts in user adoption or partnerships that could elevate one lab's standing before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$3,820Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:10 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Intense competition among multiple AI labs has created closely matched trader sentiment for the third-best position by end of November, with Meta at 37.5% implied probability leading a crowded field that includes Google, Z.ai, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have narrowed gaps in large language model capabilities, while factors like developer ecosystem growth, training compute access, and safety evaluations keep several contenders viable. OpenAI and Anthropic trade at low odds, reflecting their likely top-two status. Key swing elements include upcoming capability demonstrations, regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and any shifts in user adoption or partnerships that could elevate one lab's standing before the resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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