xAI's accelerated iteration schedule, driven by Elon Musk's public timeline commitments, anchors trader sentiment around the Grok 4.6 release. Following Grok 4.5's July 16 launch as the 1.5-trillion-parameter flagship optimized for coding and agentic tasks, Musk stated on July 30 that 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting August 6-7. The model reuses the same V9 foundation with gains from refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, positioning it against models such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while maintaining speed advantages. xAI's pattern of frequent updates, including a planned Grok 4.7 weeks later, and third-party confirmations of an August 7 rollout on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena further shape market-implied odds by signaling high execution confidence amid competitive AI lab pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 4.6 released by...?
Grok 4.6 released by...?
NOWE
$38,321 Wol.
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
12%
August 14
88%
$38,321 Wol.
August 7
$21,692 Wol.
12%
August 14
$16,629 Wol.
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's accelerated iteration schedule, driven by Elon Musk's public timeline commitments, anchors trader sentiment around the Grok 4.6 release. Following Grok 4.5's July 16 launch as the 1.5-trillion-parameter flagship optimized for coding and agentic tasks, Musk stated on July 30 that 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting August 6-7. The model reuses the same V9 foundation with gains from refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, positioning it against models such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while maintaining speed advantages. xAI's pattern of frequent updates, including a planned Grok 4.7 weeks later, and third-party confirmations of an August 7 rollout on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena further shape market-implied odds by signaling high execution confidence amid competitive AI lab pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$38,321Data zakończenia
Aug 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's accelerated iteration schedule, driven by Elon Musk's public timeline commitments, anchors trader sentiment around the Grok 4.6 release. Following Grok 4.5's July 16 launch as the 1.5-trillion-parameter flagship optimized for coding and agentic tasks, Musk stated on July 30 that 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting August 6-7. The model reuses the same V9 foundation with gains from refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, positioning it against models such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while maintaining speed advantages. xAI's pattern of frequent updates, including a planned Grok 4.7 weeks later, and third-party confirmations of an August 7 rollout on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena further shape market-implied odds by signaling high execution confidence amid competitive AI lab pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$38,321Data zakończenia
Aug 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's accelerated iteration schedule, driven by Elon Musk's public timeline commitments, anchors trader sentiment around the Grok 4.6 release. Following Grok 4.5's July 16 launch as the 1.5-trillion-parameter flagship optimized for coding and agentic tasks, Musk stated on July 30 that 4.6 would arrive in roughly one week, targeting August 6-7. The model reuses the same V9 foundation with gains from refined supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, positioning it against models such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 while maintaining speed advantages. xAI's pattern of frequent updates, including a planned Grok 4.7 weeks later, and third-party confirmations of an August 7 rollout on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena further shape market-implied odds by signaling high execution confidence amid competitive AI lab pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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