Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series, highlighted by the July 16, 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 with strong frontier-level benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for a larger K4 successor. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to scale beyond K3's architecture, amid competition from DeepSeek and pressure to close gaps with proprietary U.S. models like Claude and GPT variants. No official K4 announcement, model card, or timeline exists as of September 2026, leaving outcomes sensitive to compute availability, internal milestones, or surprise leaks ahead of events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty in development velocity versus hardware and regulatory constraints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKimi K4 released by…?
Kimi K4 released by…?
$17,543 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
12%
$17,543 Wol.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Wol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$8,055 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series, highlighted by the July 16, 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 with strong frontier-level benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for a larger K4 successor. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to scale beyond K3's architecture, amid competition from DeepSeek and pressure to close gaps with proprietary U.S. models like Claude and GPT variants. No official K4 announcement, model card, or timeline exists as of September 2026, leaving outcomes sensitive to compute availability, internal milestones, or surprise leaks ahead of events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty in development velocity versus hardware and regulatory constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,543Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series, highlighted by the July 16, 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 with strong frontier-level benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for a larger K4 successor. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to scale beyond K3's architecture, amid competition from DeepSeek and pressure to close gaps with proprietary U.S. models like Claude and GPT variants. No official K4 announcement, model card, or timeline exists as of September 2026, leaving outcomes sensitive to compute availability, internal milestones, or surprise leaks ahead of events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty in development velocity versus hardware and regulatory constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$17,543Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid iteration on the Kimi series, highlighted by the July 16, 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 with strong frontier-level benchmarks on coding and agentic tasks, sets expectations for a larger K4 successor. Traders are watching reports that the company is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to scale beyond K3's architecture, amid competition from DeepSeek and pressure to close gaps with proprietary U.S. models like Claude and GPT variants. No official K4 announcement, model card, or timeline exists as of September 2026, leaving outcomes sensitive to compute availability, internal milestones, or surprise leaks ahead of events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty in development velocity versus hardware and regulatory constraints.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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