Persistent high pressure and clear skies under a strong mid-level ridge have sustained extreme heat across central Texas, driving August 24 forecasts for Austin highs of 102–105 °F with heat indices near 108 °F. Recent observations confirm the pattern: Austin recorded 104–105 °F on August 22 amid south-southwest winds of 5–10 mph and negligible moisture. National Weather Service and model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) show minimal day-to-day variation through Monday, with only slight afternoon cloud increases possible but no significant cooling or rain expected. These conditions concentrate trader-implied probability on the 104–105 °F bin at 53 percent, followed by 102–103 °F at 29.5 percent, as any minor steering or boundary-layer changes could nudge the peak within that narrow range ahead of final observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 54%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 10%
108-109°F 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
5%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
30%
104-105°F
54%
106-107°F
10%
108-109°F
7%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
3%
114°F or higher
2%
104-105°F 54%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 10%
108-109°F 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$37 Wol.
<1%
96-97°F
$77 Wol.
1%
98-99°F
$44 Wol.
5%
100-101°F
$44 Wol.
5%
102-103°F
$249 Wol.
30%
104-105°F
$360 Wol.
54%
106-107°F
$52 Wol.
10%
108-109°F
$32 Wol.
7%
110-111°F
$57 Wol.
1%
112-113°F
$36 Wol.
3%
114°F or higher
$5 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies under a strong mid-level ridge have sustained extreme heat across central Texas, driving August 24 forecasts for Austin highs of 102–105 °F with heat indices near 108 °F. Recent observations confirm the pattern: Austin recorded 104–105 °F on August 22 amid south-southwest winds of 5–10 mph and negligible moisture. National Weather Service and model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) show minimal day-to-day variation through Monday, with only slight afternoon cloud increases possible but no significant cooling or rain expected. These conditions concentrate trader-implied probability on the 104–105 °F bin at 53 percent, followed by 102–103 °F at 29.5 percent, as any minor steering or boundary-layer changes could nudge the peak within that narrow range ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$993Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies under a strong mid-level ridge have sustained extreme heat across central Texas, driving August 24 forecasts for Austin highs of 102–105 °F with heat indices near 108 °F. Recent observations confirm the pattern: Austin recorded 104–105 °F on August 22 amid south-southwest winds of 5–10 mph and negligible moisture. National Weather Service and model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) show minimal day-to-day variation through Monday, with only slight afternoon cloud increases possible but no significant cooling or rain expected. These conditions concentrate trader-implied probability on the 104–105 °F bin at 53 percent, followed by 102–103 °F at 29.5 percent, as any minor steering or boundary-layer changes could nudge the peak within that narrow range ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$993Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and clear skies under a strong mid-level ridge have sustained extreme heat across central Texas, driving August 24 forecasts for Austin highs of 102–105 °F with heat indices near 108 °F. Recent observations confirm the pattern: Austin recorded 104–105 °F on August 22 amid south-southwest winds of 5–10 mph and negligible moisture. National Weather Service and model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) show minimal day-to-day variation through Monday, with only slight afternoon cloud increases possible but no significant cooling or rain expected. These conditions concentrate trader-implied probability on the 104–105 °F bin at 53 percent, followed by 102–103 °F at 29.5 percent, as any minor steering or boundary-layer changes could nudge the peak within that narrow range ahead of final observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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