Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 29?
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Wol.
$55,071 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$55,071 Wol.
$55,071 Wol.
Apr 29, 2026
14°C or below
$762 Wol.
No
15°C
$667 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,104 Wol.
No
17°C
$2,130 Wol.
No
18°C
$3,792 Wol.
No
19°C
$7,581 Wol.
No
20°C
$8,848 Wol.
Yes
21°C
$7,116 Wol.
No
22°C
$13,101 Wol.
No
23°C
$4,596 Wol.
No
24°C or higher
$5,375 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Wolumen
$55,071Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$55,071Data zakończenia
Apr 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 20°C in Cape Town on April 29, driven by verified observational data from the Cape Town International Airport weather station—the market's official resolution source managed by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). Hourly METAR reports and daily summaries confirm the maximum reached exactly 20°C under fine, cool autumnal conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover, aligning precisely with SAWS pre-event forecasts projecting highs near 19–20°C amid seasonal cooling trends influenced by the Benguela Current and passing frontal systems. This positioning reflects Cape Town's typical late-April climatology, where daily highs average 21–23°C but vary with synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges, such as rare post hoc data revisions from sensor recalibration, occur in under 1% of cases historically but would require SAWS audit confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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