**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.** Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow. This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 26?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 26?
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$209,959 Wol.
$209,959 Wol.
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$209,959 Wol.
$209,959 Wol.
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.** Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow. This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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