Official Philippine forecasts from PAGASA indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C for Metro Manila on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, with 100% rain chances, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover expected to moderate peak temperatures. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 30–31°C while increasing uncertainty from localized thunderstorms or breaks in cloudiness that could allow brief warming to 32°C or cooling below 29°C. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and convective activity as key variables, with traders weighting the 28–30°C outcomes most heavily given the narrow historical range and limited short-term variability in recent days. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 4?
28°C 31%
29°C 28%
30°C 18%
27°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
9%
27°C
11%
28°C
31%
29°C
28%
30°C
18%
31°C
9%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 31%
29°C 28%
30°C 18%
27°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
$38 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$28 Wol.
1%
25°C
$28 Wol.
2%
26°C
$3 Wol.
9%
27°C
$80 Wol.
11%
28°C
$16 Wol.
31%
29°C
$0 Wol.
28%
30°C
$1 Wol.
18%
31°C
$5 Wol.
9%
32°C
$20 Wol.
4%
33°C or higher
$52 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Philippine forecasts from PAGASA indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C for Metro Manila on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, with 100% rain chances, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover expected to moderate peak temperatures. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 30–31°C while increasing uncertainty from localized thunderstorms or breaks in cloudiness that could allow brief warming to 32°C or cooling below 29°C. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and convective activity as key variables, with traders weighting the 28–30°C outcomes most heavily given the narrow historical range and limited short-term variability in recent days. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$271Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Philippine forecasts from PAGASA indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C for Metro Manila on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, with 100% rain chances, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover expected to moderate peak temperatures. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 30–31°C while increasing uncertainty from localized thunderstorms or breaks in cloudiness that could allow brief warming to 32°C or cooling below 29°C. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and convective activity as key variables, with traders weighting the 28–30°C outcomes most heavily given the narrow historical range and limited short-term variability in recent days. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$271Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Philippine forecasts from PAGASA indicate a likely daily maximum near 31°C for Metro Manila on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, with 100% rain chances, high humidity, and extensive cloud cover expected to moderate peak temperatures. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 30–31°C while increasing uncertainty from localized thunderstorms or breaks in cloudiness that could allow brief warming to 32°C or cooling below 29°C. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and convective activity as key variables, with traders weighting the 28–30°C outcomes most heavily given the narrow historical range and limited short-term variability in recent days. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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