Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C (42%) and 25°C (33%) for Hong Kong’s August 2 minimum, reflecting short-term forecast guidance of heavy rain and persistent cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. Subtropical summer conditions normally produce minima near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture and reduced insolation from showers can drop readings 1–2°C below the seasonal average, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory outlooks showing normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall yet localized cooling under rain. Model consensus on wind patterns and urban heat-island moderation further narrows the likely range, with fresh observational data from the coming hours poised to refine these probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?
24°C 42%
25°C 33%
23°C 14%
26°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
14%
24°C
42%
25°C
33%
26°C
12%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 42%
25°C 33%
23°C 14%
26°C 12%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 2, 2026
20°C or below
$436 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$179 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$732 Wol.
2%
23°C
$767 Wol.
14%
24°C
$949 Wol.
42%
25°C
$2,507 Wol.
33%
26°C
$583 Wol.
12%
27°C
$486 Wol.
1%
28°C
$466 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$312 Wol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$208 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C (42%) and 25°C (33%) for Hong Kong’s August 2 minimum, reflecting short-term forecast guidance of heavy rain and persistent cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. Subtropical summer conditions normally produce minima near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture and reduced insolation from showers can drop readings 1–2°C below the seasonal average, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory outlooks showing normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall yet localized cooling under rain. Model consensus on wind patterns and urban heat-island moderation further narrows the likely range, with fresh observational data from the coming hours poised to refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$7,624Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C (42%) and 25°C (33%) for Hong Kong’s August 2 minimum, reflecting short-term forecast guidance of heavy rain and persistent cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. Subtropical summer conditions normally produce minima near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture and reduced insolation from showers can drop readings 1–2°C below the seasonal average, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory outlooks showing normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall yet localized cooling under rain. Model consensus on wind patterns and urban heat-island moderation further narrows the likely range, with fresh observational data from the coming hours poised to refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$7,624Data zakończenia
Aug 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 24°C (42%) and 25°C (33%) for Hong Kong’s August 2 minimum, reflecting short-term forecast guidance of heavy rain and persistent cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. Subtropical summer conditions normally produce minima near 26–27°C, but enhanced moisture and reduced insolation from showers can drop readings 1–2°C below the seasonal average, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory outlooks showing normal-to-above-normal temperatures overall yet localized cooling under rain. Model consensus on wind patterns and urban heat-island moderation further narrows the likely range, with fresh observational data from the coming hours poised to refine these probabilities before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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