Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Chengdu’s August 3 maximum reflects typical late-summer monsoon conditions, where ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration show daily highs near the seasonal 30–32°C average amid variable cloud cover and scattered showers. Recent model runs indicate modest day-to-day variability driven by southeasterly flow and localized convection, keeping probabilities tightly clustered while leaving room for slight upward or downward shifts depending on the final 48-hour guidance. High humidity and urban effects can elevate perceived temperatures but rarely alter the official maximum reading used for resolution. Updated CMA and global model outputs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range further.