Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA indicate persistent high pressure and a heat dome favoring daytime highs near or slightly above the 94°F July 7 climatological normal for Houston, with limited cloud cover or sea-breeze effects likely keeping peaks in the low-to-mid 90s. Recent runs show tight clustering around 91–95°F, though small differences in boundary-layer moisture or afternoon convection introduce spread that traders price across multiple bins. Historical analogs from similar synoptic patterns confirm low odds of extremes below 88°F or above 98°F this time of year, aligning with the market’s dispersed probabilities and emphasis on near-term model updates for resolution.