Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 15?
36°C 48%
37°C 28%
35°C 20%
38°C 5.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C
20%
36°C
48%
37°C
28%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 48%
37°C 28%
35°C 20%
38°C 5.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 15, 2026
32°C or below
$23 Wol.
<1%
33°C
$14 Wol.
2%
34°C
$8 Wol.
1%
35°C
$52 Wol.
20%
36°C
$90 Wol.
48%
37°C
$15 Wol.
28%
38°C
$32 Wol.
5%
39°C
$15 Wol.
1%
40°C
$17 Wol.
<1%
41°C
$16 Wol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$20 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$303Data zakończenia
Jul 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$303Data zakończenia
Jul 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 13, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources like the Met Office and extended forecasts places Madrid’s July 15 maximum near 36°C, aligning with the market’s leading 43.5% implied probability on that outcome and 26% on 37°C. High-pressure dominance over the Iberian Peninsula, clear skies, and peak July solar insolation favor strong daytime heating, while the absence of Atlantic fronts or significant moisture limits further intensification. Recent June heatwave conditions reaching 40°C demonstrate Madrid’s potential for extremes, yet mid-July guidance shows more typical subtropical stability without anomalous warming signals. Traders weigh these factors against AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 48 hours, which could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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