Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to 36°C as Manila's highest temperature on April 26, 2026, driven by official observations at Ninoy Aquino International Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—peaking at 36°C during afternoon hours, corroborated by PAGASA's Science Garden station recording 35.7°C at 3:00 PM amid easterly winds fostering partly cloudy skies and isolated showers. PAGASA's pre-day forecasts accurately predicted Metro Manila highs of 35–36°C under these conditions, consistent with April's climatological norms during the dry-hot season when highs often reach 33–37°C. With peak solar heating past and temperatures declining into evening, realistic challenges like a brief clearing and late surge are improbable given current downward trends and model consensus; final data finalization will confirm.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on April 26?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 26?
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$29,580 Wol.
$29,580 Wol.
Apr 26, 2026
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$29,580 Wol.
$29,580 Wol.
Apr 26, 2026
30°C or below
$1,755 Wol.
No
31°C
$986 Wol.
No
32°C
$1,333 Wol.
No
33°C
$2,931 Wol.
No
34°C
$7,149 Wol.
No
35°C
$1,364 Wol.
No
36°C
$4,757 Wol.
Yes
37°C
$1,448 Wol.
No
38°C
$2,321 Wol.
No
39°C
$2,758 Wol.
No
40°C or higher
$2,779 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to 36°C as Manila's highest temperature on April 26, 2026, driven by official observations at Ninoy Aquino International Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—peaking at 36°C during afternoon hours, corroborated by PAGASA's Science Garden station recording 35.7°C at 3:00 PM amid easterly winds fostering partly cloudy skies and isolated showers. PAGASA's pre-day forecasts accurately predicted Metro Manila highs of 35–36°C under these conditions, consistent with April's climatological norms during the dry-hot season when highs often reach 33–37°C. With peak solar heating past and temperatures declining into evening, realistic challenges like a brief clearing and late surge are improbable given current downward trends and model consensus; final data finalization will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$29,580Data zakończenia
Apr 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to 36°C as Manila's highest temperature on April 26, 2026, driven by official observations at Ninoy Aquino International Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—peaking at 36°C during afternoon hours, corroborated by PAGASA's Science Garden station recording 35.7°C at 3:00 PM amid easterly winds fostering partly cloudy skies and isolated showers. PAGASA's pre-day forecasts accurately predicted Metro Manila highs of 35–36°C under these conditions, consistent with April's climatological norms during the dry-hot season when highs often reach 33–37°C. With peak solar heating past and temperatures declining into evening, realistic challenges like a brief clearing and late surge are improbable given current downward trends and model consensus; final data finalization will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$29,580Data zakończenia
Apr 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to 36°C as Manila's highest temperature on April 26, 2026, driven by official observations at Ninoy Aquino International Airport—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—peaking at 36°C during afternoon hours, corroborated by PAGASA's Science Garden station recording 35.7°C at 3:00 PM amid easterly winds fostering partly cloudy skies and isolated showers. PAGASA's pre-day forecasts accurately predicted Metro Manila highs of 35–36°C under these conditions, consistent with April's climatological norms during the dry-hot season when highs often reach 33–37°C. With peak solar heating past and temperatures declining into evening, realistic challenges like a brief clearing and late surge are improbable given current downward trends and model consensus; final data finalization will confirm.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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