Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 Wol.
$92,360 Wol.
May 12, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
Yes
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 Wol.
$92,360 Wol.
May 12, 2026
24°C or below
$3,182 Wol.
No
25°C
$5,066 Wol.
No
26°C
$6,746 Wol.
No
27°C
$7,579 Wol.
No
28°C
$15,651 Wol.
No
29°C
$10,593 Wol.
No
30°C
$11,548 Wol.
No
31°C
$4,265 Wol.
No
32°C
$5,161 Wol.
No
33°C
$14,635 Wol.
No
34°C or higher
$7,936 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
Wolumen
$92,360Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$92,360Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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