Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 23 clustering between 19–22°C, with substantial spread arising from uncertain cloud cover, weak frontal passages, and variable low-level winds over the next 48 hours. This model dispersion underpins the balanced trader-implied probabilities across the 17–21°C outcomes, as small shifts in insolation or advection could easily move the daily high across those thresholds. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 23°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor slightly cooler conditions following earlier warmth, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% implied probability. Updated model runs and observational data from the coming 24 hours represent the key catalysts that could sharpen consensus ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 23?
19°C 45%
20°C 44%
21°C 34%
17°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
19%
18°C
12%
19°C
35%
20°C
44%
21°C
34%
22°C
7%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
2%
19°C 45%
20°C 44%
21°C 34%
17°C 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Wol.
1%
16°C
$0 Wol.
1%
17°C
$0 Wol.
19%
18°C
$0 Wol.
12%
19°C
$27 Wol.
35%
20°C
$0 Wol.
44%
21°C
$0 Wol.
34%
22°C
$0 Wol.
7%
23°C
$3 Wol.
6%
24°C
$20 Wol.
2%
25°C or higher
$20 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 23 clustering between 19–22°C, with substantial spread arising from uncertain cloud cover, weak frontal passages, and variable low-level winds over the next 48 hours. This model dispersion underpins the balanced trader-implied probabilities across the 17–21°C outcomes, as small shifts in insolation or advection could easily move the daily high across those thresholds. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 23°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor slightly cooler conditions following earlier warmth, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% implied probability. Updated model runs and observational data from the coming 24 hours represent the key catalysts that could sharpen consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$70Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 23 clustering between 19–22°C, with substantial spread arising from uncertain cloud cover, weak frontal passages, and variable low-level winds over the next 48 hours. This model dispersion underpins the balanced trader-implied probabilities across the 17–21°C outcomes, as small shifts in insolation or advection could easily move the daily high across those thresholds. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 23°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor slightly cooler conditions following earlier warmth, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% implied probability. Updated model runs and observational data from the coming 24 hours represent the key catalysts that could sharpen consensus ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$70Data zakończenia
Aug 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models show maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 23 clustering between 19–22°C, with substantial spread arising from uncertain cloud cover, weak frontal passages, and variable low-level winds over the next 48 hours. This model dispersion underpins the balanced trader-implied probabilities across the 17–21°C outcomes, as small shifts in insolation or advection could easily move the daily high across those thresholds. Historical late-August climatology for the region centers near 23°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor slightly cooler conditions following earlier warmth, keeping extreme outcomes below 10% implied probability. Updated model runs and observational data from the coming 24 hours represent the key catalysts that could sharpen consensus ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania