Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
Highest temperature in Wellington on April 19?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$113,038 Wol.
$113,038 Wol.
Apr 19, 2026
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$113,038 Wol.
$113,038 Wol.
Apr 19, 2026
11°C or below
$8,400 Wol.
No
12°C
$5,879 Wol.
No
13°C
$2,544 Wol.
No
14°C
$2,609 Wol.
No
15°C
$9,405 Wol.
No
16°C
$30,766 Wol.
Yes
17°C
$21,162 Wol.
No
18°C
$11,673 Wol.
No
19°C
$10,458 Wol.
No
20°C
$5,515 Wol.
No
21°C or higher
$4,625 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$113,038Data zakończenia
Apr 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$113,038Data zakończenia
Apr 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 16°C at Wellington International Airport station on April 19, driven by official MetService observational data confirming this peak amid cloudy conditions, heavy showers, and a wind shift from northerlies to cooler southerlies. Initial forecasts from late April 17 projected up to 17°C, but persistent precipitation and cloud cover—evident in real-time radar and current readings around 13–16°C—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms of 16–18°C daily highs. Model consensus from MetService supports no further intensification, with unsettled weather prevailing. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and sustained northerlies before sunset, though current atmospheric conditions make this improbable; final daily observations will confirm resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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