**Cooler southerly flow and associated cloud cover are positioning Wellington’s August 16 maximum near 9–10 °C, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 10 °C (63.5 %) followed by 11 °C (16.5 %) and 9 °C (15 %).** Official MetService guidance and multiple global models show a shift from the recent 14–15 °C readings (August 12–13) to stronger southerlies on the 15–16th that will advect cooler maritime air across the region. This pattern typically caps daytime heating, especially under increased low cloud and showers, keeping the daily maximum below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook already favored near- or below-average temperatures for the period, and the short-range consensus reinforces this signal with little spread among runs. Traders are therefore assigning the bulk of probability to the narrow 9–11 °C window, reflecting both the strength of the forecast signal and the narrow resolution bands used by MetService station data. Updated model guidance or any unexpected northerly component could still nudge the outcome one degree higher or lower before the 16th.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 66%
11°C 21%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
11%
10°C
66%
11°C
21%
12°C
4%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 66%
11°C 21%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 Wol.
<1%
5°C
$211 Wol.
<1%
6°C
$250 Wol.
<1%
7°C
$36 Wol.
<1%
8°C
$284 Wol.
2%
9°C
$557 Wol.
11%
10°C
$1,550 Wol.
66%
11°C
$615 Wol.
21%
12°C
$272 Wol.
4%
13°C
$66 Wol.
1%
14°C or higher
$6 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler southerly flow and associated cloud cover are positioning Wellington’s August 16 maximum near 9–10 °C, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 10 °C (63.5 %) followed by 11 °C (16.5 %) and 9 °C (15 %).**
Official MetService guidance and multiple global models show a shift from the recent 14–15 °C readings (August 12–13) to stronger southerlies on the 15–16th that will advect cooler maritime air across the region. This pattern typically caps daytime heating, especially under increased low cloud and showers, keeping the daily maximum below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook already favored near- or below-average temperatures for the period, and the short-range consensus reinforces this signal with little spread among runs. Traders are therefore assigning the bulk of probability to the narrow 9–11 °C window, reflecting both the strength of the forecast signal and the narrow resolution bands used by MetService station data. Updated model guidance or any unexpected northerly component could still nudge the outcome one degree higher or lower before the 16th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,070Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler southerly flow and associated cloud cover are positioning Wellington’s August 16 maximum near 9–10 °C, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 10 °C (63.5 %) followed by 11 °C (16.5 %) and 9 °C (15 %).**
Official MetService guidance and multiple global models show a shift from the recent 14–15 °C readings (August 12–13) to stronger southerlies on the 15–16th that will advect cooler maritime air across the region. This pattern typically caps daytime heating, especially under increased low cloud and showers, keeping the daily maximum below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook already favored near- or below-average temperatures for the period, and the short-range consensus reinforces this signal with little spread among runs. Traders are therefore assigning the bulk of probability to the narrow 9–11 °C window, reflecting both the strength of the forecast signal and the narrow resolution bands used by MetService station data. Updated model guidance or any unexpected northerly component could still nudge the outcome one degree higher or lower before the 16th.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,070Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cooler southerly flow and associated cloud cover are positioning Wellington’s August 16 maximum near 9–10 °C, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 10 °C (63.5 %) followed by 11 °C (16.5 %) and 9 °C (15 %).** Official MetService guidance and multiple global models show a shift from the recent 14–15 °C readings (August 12–13) to stronger southerlies on the 15–16th that will advect cooler maritime air across the region. This pattern typically caps daytime heating, especially under increased low cloud and showers, keeping the daily maximum below the August climatological average of roughly 12–13 °C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook already favored near- or below-average temperatures for the period, and the short-range consensus reinforces this signal with little spread among runs. Traders are therefore assigning the bulk of probability to the narrow 9–11 °C window, reflecting both the strength of the forecast signal and the narrow resolution bands used by MetService station data. Updated model guidance or any unexpected northerly component could still nudge the outcome one degree higher or lower before the 16th.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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