Recent MetService and international model guidance (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a high of 14–15 °C for Wellington on 25 August under strengthening nor’westerlies ahead of a ridge, with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. These northwesterly winds often produce localized warming through downslope compression on the lee of the Tararuas, supporting the market’s emphasis on 15–16 °C outcomes. Current ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside potential to 16–17 °C if winds peak earlier in the day; downside risk to 14 °C or lower is limited by the absence of southerly change signals. Historical August maxima average near 13–14 °C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest positive anomaly consistent with the latest observational trends. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–36 hours will be the key drivers for any further shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
16°C 54%
15°C 28%
17°C 17%
14°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
6%
15°C
28%
16°C
54%
17°C
17%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
2%
16°C 54%
15°C 28%
17°C 17%
14°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
$12 Wol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Wol.
1%
13°C
$0 Wol.
3%
14°C
$0 Wol.
6%
15°C
$57 Wol.
28%
16°C
$101 Wol.
54%
17°C
$87 Wol.
17%
18°C
$0 Wol.
4%
19°C
$5 Wol.
4%
20°C or higher
$12 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model guidance (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a high of 14–15 °C for Wellington on 25 August under strengthening nor’westerlies ahead of a ridge, with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. These northwesterly winds often produce localized warming through downslope compression on the lee of the Tararuas, supporting the market’s emphasis on 15–16 °C outcomes. Current ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside potential to 16–17 °C if winds peak earlier in the day; downside risk to 14 °C or lower is limited by the absence of southerly change signals. Historical August maxima average near 13–14 °C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest positive anomaly consistent with the latest observational trends. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–36 hours will be the key drivers for any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$273Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model guidance (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a high of 14–15 °C for Wellington on 25 August under strengthening nor’westerlies ahead of a ridge, with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. These northwesterly winds often produce localized warming through downslope compression on the lee of the Tararuas, supporting the market’s emphasis on 15–16 °C outcomes. Current ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside potential to 16–17 °C if winds peak earlier in the day; downside risk to 14 °C or lower is limited by the absence of southerly change signals. Historical August maxima average near 13–14 °C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest positive anomaly consistent with the latest observational trends. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–36 hours will be the key drivers for any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$273Data zakończenia
Aug 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and international model guidance (GFS, ECMWF) indicate a high of 14–15 °C for Wellington on 25 August under strengthening nor’westerlies ahead of a ridge, with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. These northwesterly winds often produce localized warming through downslope compression on the lee of the Tararuas, supporting the market’s emphasis on 15–16 °C outcomes. Current ensemble spreads remain narrow, with only modest upside potential to 16–17 °C if winds peak earlier in the day; downside risk to 14 °C or lower is limited by the absence of southerly change signals. Historical August maxima average near 13–14 °C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest positive anomaly consistent with the latest observational trends. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 24–36 hours will be the key drivers for any further shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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