Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Wol.
$262,920 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
No
2–3
No
4–5
No
6–7
No
8–9
Yes
10+
No
8–9 100.0%
<2 <1%
2–3 <1%
4–5 <1%
$262,920 Wol.
$262,920 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$24,731 Wol.
No
2–3
$43,827 Wol.
No
4–5
$52,806 Wol.
No
6–7
$45,107 Wol.
No
8–9
$39,409 Wol.
Yes
10+
$57,039 Wol.
No
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$262,920Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$262,920Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 distinct commercial vessels successfully targeted by Iranian forces through April 30, reflecting verified tallies from the 2026 Iran war's Strait of Hormuz confrontations. The IRGC Navy's April 22 kinetic strikes on three ships—seizing MSC Francesca and Epaminondas while targeting a third—marked the final confirmed actions, elevating the cumulative count amid a U.S. naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks that halted further escalation. No additional strikes or seizures materialized by month's end, as ship-tracking data and official reports solidified the 8–9 figure. Late verifications of unconfirmed prior incidents, attribution disputes distinguishing direct Iranian from proxy operations, or reclassifications of "successful" targeting could challenge this near-certain resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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