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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolityka·Zawieszenie Broni W Iranie

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolityka·Zawieszenie Broni W Iranie

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8,451,722 Wol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,451,722 Wol.

Polymarket

September 30

$264,261 Wol.

1%

December 31

$225,668 Wol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered June 2026 framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established a conditions-based process for phased Israeli redeployment from southern Lebanon, starting with two limited pilot zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume security responsibility after verified disarmament of non-state groups like Hezbollah. The security annex ties any further withdrawals to measurable progress on dismantling militant infrastructure rather than fixed timelines, allowing Israel to maintain its security zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, Israel has conducted operations against Hezbollah positions, including tunnel networks, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south to stress withdrawal, prisoner returns, and reconstruction as national priorities. Scheduled follow-on talks were postponed until October amid Hezbollah's rejection of disarmament without prior full Israeli exit. These dynamics center trader focus on implementation barriers, Lebanese army effectiveness, and any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs within resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Wolumen
$8,451,722
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.A U.S.-brokered June 2026 framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon established a conditions-based process for phased Israeli redeployment from southern Lebanon, starting with two limited pilot zones where the Lebanese Armed Forces would assume security responsibility after verified disarmament of non-state groups like Hezbollah. The security annex ties any further withdrawals to measurable progress on dismantling militant infrastructure rather than fixed timelines, allowing Israel to maintain its security zone until threats are neutralized. As of mid-September 2026, Israel has conducted operations against Hezbollah positions, including tunnel networks, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited the south to stress withdrawal, prisoner returns, and reconstruction as national priorities. Scheduled follow-on talks were postponed until October amid Hezbollah's rejection of disarmament without prior full Israeli exit. These dynamics center trader focus on implementation barriers, Lebanese army effectiveness, and any escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs within resolution windows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Wolumen
$8,451,722
Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 7 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "December 31" z 6%, za nim "September 30" z 1%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 6¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 6% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" wygenerował $8.5 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 16, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?", przeglądaj 7 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

To szeroko otwarty rynek. Obecnym liderem dla "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" jest "December 31" z zaledwie 6%, a za nim "September 30" z 1%. Brak wyniku z wyraźną większością — traderzy widzą to jako wysoce niepewne, co może stwarzać unikalne okazje handlowe. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, więc dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby obserwować ewolucję prawdopodobieństw.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.