Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on July 6?
Lowest temperature in London on July 6?
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,462 Wol.
$36,462 Wol.
Jul 6, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$36,462 Wol.
$36,462 Wol.
Jul 6, 2026
14°C or below
$2,444 Wol.
No
15°C
$2,556 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,056 Wol.
No
17°C
$2,152 Wol.
No
18°C
$3,873 Wol.
No
19°C
$12,673 Wol.
Yes
20°C
$2,501 Wol.
No
21°C
$1,798 Wol.
No
22°C
$3,263 Wol.
No
23°C
$1,748 Wol.
No
24°C or higher
$2,397 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$36,462Data zakończenia
Jul 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$36,462Data zakończenia
Jul 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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