Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 3?
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Wol.
$12,747 Wol.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$12,747 Wol.
$12,747 Wol.
May 3, 2026
8°C or below
$424 Wol.
No
9°C
$899 Wol.
No
10°C
$457 Wol.
No
11°C
$633 Wol.
No
12°C
$809 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,029 Wol.
No
14°C
$1,950 Wol.
Yes
15°C
$1,191 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,692 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,913 Wol.
No
18°C or higher
$1,750 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,747Data zakończenia
May 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$12,747Data zakończenia
May 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 1, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Météo-France's latest AROME model run and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF project a precise nocturnal minimum of 14°C in Paris on May 3, driving trader consensus to full certainty on this outcome amid a stable mild weather pattern over Île-de-France. This positioning stems from the past week's pleasant conditions (8–26°C range) continuing under light southerly winds and partial cloud cover, which limit radiative cooling despite typical May averages around 9–11°C lows. Morning observations already exceeding 13°C further solidify the market-implied odds. Realistic challenges include unanticipated clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 13°C or below, though current guidance deems this improbable; final station data from Paris-Montsouris or Orly will resolve post-midnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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