Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 Wol.
$25,648 Wol.
May 3, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 Wol.
$25,648 Wol.
May 3, 2026
12°C or below
$2,053 Wol.
No
13°C
$714 Wol.
No
14°C
$6,119 Wol.
No
15°C
$4,006 Wol.
No
16°C
$2,433 Wol.
No
17°C
$6,838 Wol.
Yes
18°C
$874 Wol.
No
19°C
$693 Wol.
No
20°C
$1,002 Wol.
No
21°C
$328 Wol.
No
22°C or higher
$588 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$25,648Data zakończenia
May 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$25,648Data zakończenia
May 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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