The strong trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with no hurricanes formed by early September—well below climatological norms—and recent seismic and volcanic activity, such as the June Venezuela double quake (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), falling short of resolution thresholds. Historical data confirm these extreme thresholds occur infrequently, and the lack of new model runs or observations indicating imminent qualifying events has kept market-implied odds stable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
21% szansa
$246,739 Wol.
$246,739 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
21% szansa
$246,739 Wol.
$246,739 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The strong trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with no hurricanes formed by early September—well below climatological norms—and recent seismic and volcanic activity, such as the June Venezuela double quake (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), falling short of resolution thresholds. Historical data confirm these extreme thresholds occur infrequently, and the lack of new model runs or observations indicating imminent qualifying events has kept market-implied odds stable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$246,739Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
The strong trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with no hurricanes formed by early September—well below climatological norms—and recent seismic and volcanic activity, such as the June Venezuela double quake (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), falling short of resolution thresholds. Historical data confirm these extreme thresholds occur infrequently, and the lack of new model runs or observations indicating imminent qualifying events has kept market-implied odds stable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$246,739Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The strong trader consensus favoring “No” at 79.5% reflects the continued absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring shows an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, with no hurricanes formed by early September—well below climatological norms—and recent seismic and volcanic activity, such as the June Venezuela double quake (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), falling short of resolution thresholds. Historical data confirm these extreme thresholds occur infrequently, and the lack of new model runs or observations indicating imminent qualifying events has kept market-implied odds stable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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