Polymarket traders have priced a 99.8% implied probability for a US bank failure by June 30, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) seized Community Bank & Trust—West Georgia on May 1, 2026, marking the second such failure this year following Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust's January collapse. This event, driven by ongoing pressures from elevated interest rates, commercial real estate distress, and liquidity strains on smaller institutions, locks in the Yes resolution well ahead of the deadline, as FDIC-appointed receivership with deposit assumption by Anchor Bank confirms the outcome per standard criteria. Tail risks remain negligible but could include rare definitional disputes over failure classification or administrative resolution delays, though trader capital overwhelmingly dismisses these scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$22,719 Wol.
$22,719 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$22,719 Wol.
$22,719 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders have priced a 99.8% implied probability for a US bank failure by June 30, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) seized Community Bank & Trust—West Georgia on May 1, 2026, marking the second such failure this year following Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust's January collapse. This event, driven by ongoing pressures from elevated interest rates, commercial real estate distress, and liquidity strains on smaller institutions, locks in the Yes resolution well ahead of the deadline, as FDIC-appointed receivership with deposit assumption by Anchor Bank confirms the outcome per standard criteria. Tail risks remain negligible but could include rare definitional disputes over failure classification or administrative resolution delays, though trader capital overwhelmingly dismisses these scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$22,719Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket traders have priced a 99.8% implied probability for a US bank failure by June 30, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) seized Community Bank & Trust—West Georgia on May 1, 2026, marking the second such failure this year following Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust's January collapse. This event, driven by ongoing pressures from elevated interest rates, commercial real estate distress, and liquidity strains on smaller institutions, locks in the Yes resolution well ahead of the deadline, as FDIC-appointed receivership with deposit assumption by Anchor Bank confirms the outcome per standard criteria. Tail risks remain negligible but could include rare definitional disputes over failure classification or administrative resolution delays, though trader capital overwhelmingly dismisses these scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Wolumen
$22,719Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Polymarket traders have priced a 99.8% implied probability for a US bank failure by June 30, reflecting near-unanimous consensus after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) seized Community Bank & Trust—West Georgia on May 1, 2026, marking the second such failure this year following Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust's January collapse. This event, driven by ongoing pressures from elevated interest rates, commercial real estate distress, and liquidity strains on smaller institutions, locks in the Yes resolution well ahead of the deadline, as FDIC-appointed receivership with deposit assumption by Anchor Bank confirms the outcome per standard criteria. Tail risks remain negligible but could include rare definitional disputes over failure classification or administrative resolution delays, though trader capital overwhelmingly dismisses these scenarios.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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