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Technologia·Przestój

Will Claude go down on __ days in April?

Market icon
Technologia·Przestój

Will Claude go down on __ days in April?

Apr 30

May 31

Apr 30

May 31

12+ 90%

9-11 10%

6-8 <1%

Polymarket

$64,829 Wol.

12+ 90%

9-11 10%

6-8 <1%

Polymarket

$64,829 Wol.

6-8

$9,644 Wol.

<1%

9-11

$8,215 Wol.

10%

12+

$14,673 Wol.

90%

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in April 2026 (89.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's official status page logging repeated disruptions to claude.ai—including elevated errors and outages on April 15 (affecting login and core services for nearly three hours), April 13 (48-minute downtime), April 17 (Google Drive upload failures), and earlier incidents on April 6-10. This pattern, amid user backlash over declining large language model performance and capacity constraints during aggressive scaling, has already confirmed non-green uptime status for at least eight days through April 17, with traders anticipating further instability across the remaining 13 days despite ongoing fixes. A shift to 9-11 days (9.5%) would require marked reliability improvements, while 6-8 (0.4%) appears foreclosed by recent history.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Wolumen
$64,829
Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in April 2026 (89.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's official status page logging repeated disruptions to claude.ai—including elevated errors and outages on April 15 (affecting login and core services for nearly three hours), April 13 (48-minute downtime), April 17 (Google Drive upload failures), and earlier incidents on April 6-10. This pattern, amid user backlash over declining large language model performance and capacity constraints during aggressive scaling, has already confirmed non-green uptime status for at least eight days through April 17, with traders anticipating further instability across the remaining 13 days despite ongoing fixes. A shift to 9-11 days (9.5%) would require marked reliability improvements, while 6-8 (0.4%) appears foreclosed by recent history.

This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Wolumen
$64,829
Data zakończenia
Apr 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

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Często zadawane pytania

"Will Claude go down on __ days in April?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 5 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "12+" z 90%, za nim "9-11" z 10%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 90¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 90% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Will Claude go down on __ days in April?" wygenerował $64.8K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Mar 24, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Will Claude go down on __ days in April?", przeglądaj 5 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Will Claude go down on __ days in April?" jest "12+" z 90%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 90% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "9-11" z 10%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Will Claude go down on __ days in April?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.