The closely contested 51% implied probability for a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflects the simultaneous toss-up or lean nature of each contest on a structurally difficult map where Democrats must net four seats overall for majority control. Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Georgia, the open Michigan seat, North Carolina’s open Republican-held race, and Susan Collins’ defense in Maine hinge on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, primary outcomes, and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats modestly amid lower Republican turnout in recent specials. Shifts in polling aggregates, late endorsements, or economic signals could move probabilities, while any single loss among the four would resolve the market against a sweep before November 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
52% szansa
$20,174 Wol.
$20,174 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
52% szansa
$20,174 Wol.
$20,174 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflects the simultaneous toss-up or lean nature of each contest on a structurally difficult map where Democrats must net four seats overall for majority control. Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Georgia, the open Michigan seat, North Carolina’s open Republican-held race, and Susan Collins’ defense in Maine hinge on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, primary outcomes, and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats modestly amid lower Republican turnout in recent specials. Shifts in polling aggregates, late endorsements, or economic signals could move probabilities, while any single loss among the four would resolve the market against a sweep before November 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,174Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflects the simultaneous toss-up or lean nature of each contest on a structurally difficult map where Democrats must net four seats overall for majority control. Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Georgia, the open Michigan seat, North Carolina’s open Republican-held race, and Susan Collins’ defense in Maine hinge on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, primary outcomes, and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats modestly amid lower Republican turnout in recent specials. Shifts in polling aggregates, late endorsements, or economic signals could move probabilities, while any single loss among the four would resolve the market against a sweep before November 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Wolumen
$20,174Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 51% implied probability for a Democratic sweep of the core four Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—reflects the simultaneous toss-up or lean nature of each contest on a structurally difficult map where Democrats must net four seats overall for majority control. Jon Ossoff’s reelection bid in Georgia, the open Michigan seat, North Carolina’s open Republican-held race, and Susan Collins’ defense in Maine hinge on candidate recruitment, fundraising edges, primary outcomes, and national generic ballot trends favoring Democrats modestly amid lower Republican turnout in recent specials. Shifts in polling aggregates, late endorsements, or economic signals could move probabilities, while any single loss among the four would resolve the market against a sweep before November 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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