Skip to main content
Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil

Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.0%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos 6.5%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$51,977,021 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.0%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39%

Renan Santos 6.5%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$51,977,021 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,102,289 Vol.

40%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,557,771 Vol.

39%

Renan Santos vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Renan Santos

$4,053,654 Vol.

6%

Fernando Haddad vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Fernando Haddad

$3,518,467 Vol.

4%

Camilo Santana vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Camilo Santana

$1,216,317 Vol.

2%

Ronaldo Caiado vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,688,759 Vol.

2%

Romeu Zema vai ganhar a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Romeu Zema

$658,620 Vol.

1%

Jair Bolsonaro vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Jair Bolsonaro

$2,759,472 Vol.

1%

Michelle Bolsonaro ganhará a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Michelle Bolsonaro

$4,192,484 Vol.

1%

Geraldo Alckmin vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$1,015,077 Vol.

1%

Tarcisio de Freitas vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$7,664,172 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$6,601,345 Vol.

<1%

Aldo Rebelo vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Aldo Rebelo

$988,349 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Ratinho Júnior

$6,240,132 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Leite vencerá a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026? icon

Eduardo Leite

$2,722,148 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 38.5%, driven by recent polls like the April 14 CNT/MDA survey showing Lula narrowly ahead in a simulated runoff and Datafolha's April 11 tie, alongside a Genial/Quaest poll indicating Flávio's first numerical edge on April 15. Flávio's rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro family brand despite his father's ineligibility, while Lula's re-election bid faces scrutiny over economic pressures and approval dips. The race remains tightly contested among fragmented fields, with separation hinging on upcoming polls, party conventions by July, economic indicators, and potential endorsements ahead of the October 4 first round or runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$51,977,021
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin first-round lead for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.1% over incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 38.5%, driven by recent polls like the April 14 CNT/MDA survey showing Lula narrowly ahead in a simulated runoff and Datafolha's April 11 tie, alongside a Genial/Quaest poll indicating Flávio's first numerical edge on April 15. Flávio's rise leverages the enduring Bolsonaro family brand despite his father's ineligibility, while Lula's re-election bid faces scrutiny over economic pressures and approval dips. The race remains tightly contested among fragmented fields, with separation hinging on upcoming polls, party conventions by July, economic indicators, and potential endorsements ahead of the October 4 first round or runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$51,977,021
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 40%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" has generated $52 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.